Laborers unload wheat grain from a trailer at a wholesale grain market on the outskirts of Amritsar, India, on April 16, 2022.
(NARINDER NANU / AFP)
The impact of climate change is now being felt daily and is exacting a heavy toll on food production globally.
New research modelling shows that climate change will significantly alter the yield and price of wheat in the coming years, even if climate mitigation targets are kept under two degrees Celsius.
Wheat is the world’s major grain crop, providing an estimated 20 percent of the protein and calories for more than 3.5 billion people around the world.
Its production, availability, and accessibility are vital for global food security. Climate change, however, is putting substantial stress in many wheat producing regions of the world.
In research published in the journal One Earth on Aug 19, scientists predicted that wheat yields are likely to increase at high latitudes and decrease in low latitudes
In research published in the journal One Earth on Aug 19, scientists predicted that wheat yields are likely to increase at high latitudes and decrease in low latitudes.
At the same time prices for the grain are likely to change unevenly and increase in much of the Global South, exacerbating existing inequalities, according to the research modelling carried out by scientists from six countries.
What makes this latest research different from previous studies is that it allowed scientists to look at the impacts of both climate mean conditions and extreme events on wheat yields, prices and global supply-demand chains.
Karin van der Wiel, a climate scientist with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and a co-author of the report, said in a statement: "We know from previous research that extreme events do not necessarily respond in the same way as the mean conditions, and because these extreme events are the most impactful on societies, this (the new modelling) is an important step forward.”
The study found that yields will increase in high latitude regions — countries like the United States, Russia, and much of northern Europe.
In countries like Egypt, India and Venezuela, however, wheat yields are likely to drop — in some areas by more than 15 percent.
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With this change in yields, the traditional trade position of the wheat market could be deepened, and this may cause the wheat-importing regions located in low latitudes, such as Southern Asia and Northern Africa, to see more frequent and steeper wheat price spikes than wheat exporting countries.
Tianyi Zhang, agro-meteorologist with the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences
"With this change in yields, the traditional trade position of the wheat market could be deepened, and this may cause the wheat-importing regions located in low latitudes, such as Southern Asia and Northern Africa, to see more frequent and steeper wheat price spikes than wheat exporting countries," said lead author Tianyi Zhang, an agro-meteorologist with the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
“Not only could these changes mean that countries already facing food security issues pay even more for a pivotal food crop, but wheat prices on the global market could become more volatile and exacerbate existing inequalities,” Zhang said in a statement.
Frank Selten, a climate researcher with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute who was involved in the study, said wheat grown at high latitudes “exhibit an increase in yield due to the fact that in general growing conditions improve due to the warming with a lengthening of the growing season as a result and enough precipitation to sustain the crops”.
“In low latitudes, often growth is limited by lack of precipitation or excessive temperatures in a warmer climate,” he told China Daily.
He said mean prices globally increase by about two percent as yields rise in the net wheat exporting extra-tropical regions but decrease in net wheat importing countries in lower latitudes.
“These regional contrasts are enhanced in years of low global yield. Trade then leads to higher prices, both in the net wheat importing countries due to the high demand and in the net, wheat exporting countries since the export drives domestic prices upward,” he said.
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Selten said years of low global yields will occur more often since the variability in global yields increase in a two-degree warmer world.
The study warned that grain prices are likely to change unevenly in the world, with much of the Global South expected to endure higher costs.
“India is a net wheat import country and in years of low global yields, domestic yields tend to be low, and, in those years, India depends on import for its food security at a high price point,” Selten said.
He said trade liberalization enhances this effect with higher incomes for producers of net exporting countries, and lower incomes for producers in the net importing countries.
“To lessen the impact on poorer countries, protective measures should be strengthened such as high import taxes and lower taxes for domestic products and lower income taxes for domestic producers,” Selten said.
Zhang and his team hope their predictions about wheat prices and volatility will prompt global action.
"Helping improve the grain food self-supplies in developing countries is crucial for global food security," said Zhang. "This is worthy of discussion between countries in future international agricultural collaboration policy."
Contact the writer at
karlwilson@chinadailyapac.com