Country must step up inoculations to adopt 'new normal', receive tourists, experts say
Medical staff administer doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine to a student between the age of 12 and 17 in Hanoi on Nov 23, 2021. (NHAC NGUYEN / AFP)
Vietnam must speed up its vaccination rollout even as it attempts to transit to a "new normal", experts say, as the Southeast Asian country sees rising COVID-19 infections amid the ongoing pandemic.
"Despite an increase in vaccination rate, Vietnam has reported the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia in the past 28 days," said Roger Lord, senior lecturer of medical sciences at the Australian Catholic University.
Despite an increase in vaccination rate, Vietnam has reported the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia in the past 28 days.
Roger Lord, senior lecturer of medical sciences at the Australian Catholic University
Vietnam reported 13,972 new COVID-19 cases on Nov 30, bringing its tally to around 1.24 million, according its Ministry of Health. Total fatalities in the country have reached 25,252.
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The number of daily new cases was the highest among members in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, accounting for over half of the bloc's total. It is also the highest daily figure since the country began to lift lockdown restrictions on Oct 1.
Thanks to the accelerated vaccination speed, Vietnam’s National Steering Committee for COVID-19 Prevention and Control agreed in September to switch away from “Zero-COVID-19” to safe adaptation to the pandemic strategy, according to Vietnamese government news portal VGP News.
Lord said that as testing to monitor infections fell dramatically around mid-October during Vietnam's vaccine rollout, the actual number of positive COVID-19 cases could have been much higher at that time.
"It is unclear whether the current surge in cases represents a failure with the current quarantine practices for infected individuals, or if the virus is being spread asymptomatically in the community," said Lord, noting the latter might be a more likely scenario given the recent easing of lockdown restrictions and improved rates of vaccination.
Vietnam's vaccination rollout has sped up in the past few months, with the number of fully vaccinated people rising from less than three percent of the population at the end of August to 50.6 percent as of Nov 28, according to Oxford University's Our World in Data.
But the rate still lags behind that of many other Asian countries, with over 90 percent fully vaccinated in Singapore, nearly 80 percent in Cambodia and Japan's 77 percent.
Maurizio Trevisan, professor and dean of health sciences at VinUniversity in Hanoi said the full vaccination rate nationwide is still low and needs to be improved.
Only 23 of Vietnam's 63 cities and provinces have finished inoculating their entire adult population with the first shot, making it unlikely for the country to achieve the target to vaccinate all adults by the end of this year, local media VnExpress reported on Nov 25.
However, Trevisan said that considering the progress in big cities, it is still likely that Vietnam will get close to the goal.
Vietnam has been working to secure enough doses from overseas manufacturers to cover its entire population. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh also said on Nov 27 that Vietnam needs to produce its own COVID-19 vaccines and drugs.
The country has approved nine types of COVID-19 vaccines, including vaccines produced by China's Sinopharm, while four vaccines are under development domestically as of Nov 30. Trevisan said the difficulty in recruiting enough volunteers for the trials is among the reasons for their sluggish development.
Adam McCarty, chief economist at the research and consulting firm Mekong Economics in Hanoi, said that with the rising infections, it will be difficult for factories to get people back to work as many fear another lockdown.
Due to a severe wave of infections fueled by the Delta variant and related curbs in mid-2021, Vietnam posted its steepest quarterly economic decline on record in the third quarter of this year, with the GDP contracting 6.17 percent year-on-year.
The government said in October that the country's GDP is estimated to grow between 3 percent and 3.5 percent in 2021, far below its original target of around 6 percent, according to Xinhua News Agency.
Despite this, McCarty said he believes Vietnam will again be one of the best performing economies in the Asia-Pacific in 2021, even with the potential threat from the new Omicron variant.
"The Vietnamese leadership is very conscious of trying to not be left behind as an active player in the global value chains," said McCarty, adding that there will still be repercussions and it will take most of next year for Vietnam to get back to normal.
The emergence of the heavily mutated Omicron coronavirus variant has put the world on high alert. The Omicron variant was first reported to the World Health Organization from South Africa on Nov 24 and was classified as a variant of concern on Nov 26.
Though Vietnam has not recorded any cases of the new variant strain as of Nov 30, the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam has agreed with the health ministry proposal of suspending international flights to and from some African countries due to concerns over the Omicron variant, the Vietnam News Agency reported on Dec 1.
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The move came as Vietnam started to receive fully vaccinated foreign tourists to a limited number of destinations – the first time it has taken in visitors in nearly two years – in November. The country also plans to resume international flights from 15 countries in early December.
Lord from Australian Catholic University said the emergence of the new variant may result in changes to when Vietnam will open its borders, even though very little is known about the rate of transmission or effectiveness of current vaccine strategies against the new strain.
"Recent international arrivals in both Australia and Hong Kong who tested positive for the new variant were asymptomatic and fully vaccinated," said Lord. "While (it is) too early to know for sure, this suggests that fully vaccinated individuals are still protected from serious illness if the immune response is adequate."
Trevisan from VinUniversity said Vietnam can continue with the reopening plan but stringent control of vaccination, COVID-19 tests and isolation will be needed.
kelly@chinadailyapac.com