This photo taken on May 1, 2019 shows a farmer underneath the solar panels on his farm outside of Bowen, a short drive from Australia's most northernly deepwater coal port terminal in Queensland, who is shunning fossil fuels and using solar panels and batteries to operate his farm and live with his family. (PETER PARKS / AFP)
Australia’s accelerating energy transition will see half of all homes installed with rooftop solar in the early 2030s, helping to spur a faster exit from coal-fired power generation, according to the operator of the country’s main electricity market.
About 14 gigawatts of generation capacity using the fuel could retire by the end of the decade, far more than the 5.4 gigawatts of closures currently announced, the Australian Energy Market Operator said Friday, citing the most likely scenario in a draft plan to develop the country’s electricity system over the next 30 years.
More than half of homes connected to the national electricity market will have rooftop solar panels installed by 2032 from the current 30 percent, and that will rise to 65 percent by 2050, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator’s plan
“The sector is undergoing a more rapid change than has been previously expected,” the operator said in the plan. “Given these uncertainties, the effective coordination of closures will be extremely challenging.”
More than half of homes connected to the national electricity market will have rooftop solar panels installed by 2032 from the current 30 percent, and that will rise to 65 percent by 2050, according to AEMO’s plan.
ALSO READ: Australia sees strong future for coal beyond 2030 despite UN call
Australia, which still relies heavily on coal for power generation, can do more to harness advantages in renewables, according to the document. Utility-scale wind and solar capacity can be increased nine-fold by 2050 to about 140 gigawatts.
“We have the blueprint for how Australia can operate a coal power-free grid in a little over a decade,” said Richie Merzian, climate and energy program director at the Australia Institute, a think tank that advocates a faster shift away from fossil fuels.
READ MORE: EU 'threatens to scrap trade deal if Australia doesn't ditch coal'
By 2050, the AEMO predicted a tripling of firming capacity such as batteries, hydro storage and virtual power plants, as well as the installation of 10,000 kilometers of transmission lines. Installation of four times the current rooftop solar capacity, with most connected to a dedicated energy storage system, was also expected.