(CAI MENG / CHINA DAILY)
The US’s Japan and Republic of Korea alliances are of particular importance to the Joe Biden administration’s strategy of “outcompeting” China. President Biden has made an extraordinary effort to make Japan and the ROK stand on the same page with the United States.
The US has realized that there are substantial divergences in the three countries’ respective approaches toward China. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs recently released a task force report titled “Cooperating, Competing, Confronting: US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral Cooperation as China Rises”.
The report points out the root cause of the problems in strengthening trilateral cooperation vis-a-vis China — the “persistent doubts” about the US’ commitment to and leadership in the region, which involve doubts not only about Washington’s political will and competence, but the economic feasibility of US leadership as well.
Such doubts about the US have substantially undermined strategic mutual trust between the trilateral allies, resulting in Japan and the ROK’s serious reconsideration of their security options. The report also points out that the three countries have “distinct needs and interests” in their relations with China.
To overcome the challenge, the report makes some recommendations. First, the three countries should develop institutional arrangements and mechanisms for formulating consistent policy measures in competition against China, including temporary tariff reductions and other forms of support for targeted industries and companies.
The report also suggests the three countries take the lead in reform of the World Trade Organization to make it an important venue for the trilateral partnership against China. It urges the Biden administration to reverse the freeze in appointing new appellate body members.
Second, the US needs to better understand the positions of Japan and the ROK. Given their economic and security interests, their respective approaches toward China may differ from that of the US.
In order to develop more convergence, the report suggests that the three “create opportunities for cooperation that are not focused on China” in addition to “restating alliance values and principles and reinforcing them whenever possible”. There are ample opportunities for the three allies to cooperate in such areas as health and education.
According to the report, building a trilateral coalition overtly focused on China will further the narrative that the goal of the US and its allies is to destroy China. That will ultimately be counterproductive, encouraging China to harden its positions rather than seeking cooperation when possible.
The report’s policy recommendations are rational and reasonable. However, the three allies are unable to exert their advantage against China due to deep-seated problems and structure-oriented barriers.
The inequality between the US and its allies in the US-led alliance system has determined it primarily serves the interests of Washington, and this is especially so in the US-Japan-ROK alliance, where Japan remains an “unnormal state” while the ROK has its own difficulties.
During the Cold War and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it served Japan and the ROK’s fundamental interests to follow the US’ lead. However, as the world is moving into multipolarity with irrevocable economic interdependence, a US-Japan-ROK alliance that primarily serves US interests is hardly sustainable.
It is unrealistic for Japan and the ROK to be at the US disposal in its endeavor to “outcompete” China. The two allies’ “persistent doubts” about the US are not necessarily because of the perceived decline of the US presence vis-a-vis China in the region, but because the two are increasingly reluctant to serve Washington’s interests at the expense of their own.
The US-China competition has further revealed and intensified substantial divergences in the three allies’ respective China policies, especially the gap between their security and economic interests.
The US’ strategy of “outcompeting” China is essentially security oriented — the need to defend its primacy, challenged by China’s rise. But the US and China are irreversibly intertwined economically — “decoupling” essentially presents an economic pseudo-proposition.
US-China trade has increased despite US tariffs on Chinese goods and the Trump administration “trade war”. Bilateral trade between China and the US rebounded to US$586.72 billion in 2020, surging 8.3 percent year-on-year, following a hiccup in 2018 to 2019.
Japan and the ROK would confront an even more acute contradiction between their security and economic interests should they follow Washington’s lead.
Trade between China and Japan reached US$317.5 billion in 2020 with an increase of 0.8 percent year-on-year. In comparison, US-Japan trade plunged from US$218.3 billion in 2019 to US$183.6 billion in 2020, just 57.82 percent of the China-Japan trade.
As for the ROK, its trade with China once again exceeded US$300 billion in 2020, while its trade with the US decreased by 2.7 percent to US$131.6 billion, representing just 43.87 percent of its trade with China during the same period.
It is ironic that the US, which frequently imposes “economic sanctions”, urges Japan and the ROK to join with the US to oppose “China’s economic coercion” that is barely existent in China’s economic exchanges with the two countries.
The author is a professor at the Institute of International and Regional Studies of Beijing Language and Culture University. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.