The election of the speaker of the US House of Representatives has attracted global attention after rounds of voting failed to deliver. Republican Congressman Kevin McCarthy finally finished off the race by barely meeting the threshold after 15 rounds of voting spread across five days, marking the longest election of the same kind in 164 years.
Intriguingly, the previous election stalemate took place on the eve of the American Civil War (1861-1865), whereas this one happened amid growing speculation in the local and international communities about another looming American civil war. Early September last year, The Economist even satirized the US with a cover story, titled The Disunited States of America.
Notwithstanding Washington’s all-out campaign to contain China, we the Chinese people do not wish to see social division, political confrontation, or civil war befall the US. But we are concerned that US politicians could shift their internal conflicts outward by orchestrating either an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict into a direct war between NATO and Russia, or a war in the Taiwan Straits.
The Chinese nation will not be daunted by such hostility and provocation as the country transitions from a defensive position to strategic balance with the US.
Ever since the Trump administration adjusted its global strategy in 2017 to regard China and Russia as its major rivals, China has been put on the defensive as Washington launched a series of initiatives to subdue the country’s rise, including a trade war, restrictions in the areas of innovation technology, finance, technological and cultural exchanges, and even resorted to military coercion. Washington’s hostility toward China became evident when the US’ then-secretary of state Mike Pompeo defined the Sino-US rivalry as a “competition of systems between democracy and authoritarianism” in his speech at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library on July 23, 2020.
The Biden administration has carried on Trump’s China policy by not only declaring China to be the US’ major rival but also unfolding a full-scale new Cold War against China. After the Russia-Ukraine military conflict broke out, the Biden administration made some adjustments to its China policy as the US-led West was strategizing to defeat Russia quickly.
First, instead of emphasizing the need to confront China, Washington now asserts that the US is in vigorous competition with China, but communication remains open to avoid conflicts.
Second, the Biden administration set out a clearer China policy than its predecessor, flagging clearer strategies to curb China’s development primarily in three ways: 1) bolstering strategic investment at home with a series of legislative enactments, such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022; 2) rallying or coercing its allies to act against China, strengthening the G7 alliance and Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, and creating new blocs such as the AUKUS, US-EU Trade and Technology Council, and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework; 3) constantly testing China’s red lines with, for instance, then-House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022, which nearly pushed the two countries to the brink of war.
China is slowly building up its strength during the current period of strategic defense, adopting a series of measures to counterbalance US provocations.
In September last year, President Xi Jinping kicked off his first overseas visit since the COVID-19 pandemic struck the world, attending the 22nd Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan. In November, he took part in the 17th G20 Summit in Bali and the 29th APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Bangkok. In December, he travelled to Saudi Arabia to attend the first China-Arab States Summit and China-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit.
The series of diplomatic exchanges has effectively counteracted Washington’s efforts to isolate China and curb its rise. The G20 Summit and the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting featured head-to-head competition, whereas the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting and the two summits in Saudi Arabia featured breakthroughs in expanding China’s diplomatic reach further in Central, South and West Asia, as well as in Europe and Africa.
Looking ahead, the chances of the current Sino-US strategic stalemate slipping into military conflict by accident cannot be completely dismissed. The global political, economic and military landscape could deteriorate if the internal conflicts in the US intensify and spill over. World peace and humanity would be at stake should that happen.
The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government has to recognize the fact that many local residents still fantasize about the amicability of the US and the West. What must be done is to wake them up and formulate a contingency plan to minimize the impact on Hong Kong in the event of deteriorating Sino-US relations.
The author is a senior research fellow of China Everbright Holdings.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.