Earlier last week, Hong Kong’s COVID-19-inflicted mortality rate — which is measured in deaths per million — became one of the highest in the developed world.
Johns Hopkins University, a leading research institute in the US, has calculated an average of 8 deaths per million Hong Kong people over a period of 10 days. This number is likely to go up in the weeks to come. By comparison, the US recorded 9 deaths per million in late January when cases peaked.
The daily new infections shot up to over 56,000 last Thursday. In total, over 400,000 people have tested positive for the virus.
The bottom line is that Hong Kong must accept that Beijing has a part to play in stabilizing the city in both the immediate future and beyond
Experts project that cases could peak at around 183,000 per day by the end of March or early April. As for total infections, projected figures range from 1 million to 4 million infections. The death toll is estimated to rise to over 5,000.
There is no doubt that we have reached the point of no return, and before they get better, things could get worse from this point on.
It beggars belief how our healthcare system is still running, as ambulance and emergency services are overrun, hospital beds are in severe short supply, and our front-line workers are overstretched. Making things worse, hundreds or maybe thousands of front-line healthcare workers are themselves down with COVID-19.
As the continuous surge in cases and deaths show no signs of abating, it raises the question about the immediate prospects for Hong Kong.
Although the omicron variant is nowhere near as deadly as its predecessor, the delta variant, the former has still been claiming the lives of our most vulnerable patients. Young children and the elderly have fallen prey to this virus, and the issue of “long COVID” syndrome is yet to be determined as COVID survivors are still plagued by impaired cognitive functions such as brain fog, loss of memory, and chronic fatigue.
The state of our economy can easily be measured by the closure of many small and medium-sized businesses. It will continue to falter partly because of stringent anti-pandemic measures. The dine-in restrictions have been particularly hurtful to the city’s food and beverage industry, so it is no surprise that this sector is chalking up the highest unemployment rate. High-end restaurants are also hard-hit.
And looking outside of Hong Kong, the Chinese mainland has expressed more than a little concern over the city’s mismanagement of the pandemic as it is an exception to the nation’s consistently successful execution of the “dynamic zero infection” strategy.
So much so that President Xi Jinping gave instructions to Hong Kong that practically put the special administrative region on notice while at the same time he pledged the central government’s support. The last time such a notice was made by Xi was in 2019, when COVID-19 reared its ugly head in the city of Wuhan.
Xi’s notice has put the spotlight on the SAR government, which has been repeatedly out of step with managing the virus. The pandemic has been around for more than two years, and it is surprising how the SAR government lacks preparedness.
Meanwhile, most Hong Kong residents have exercised the highest standards of personal hygiene and abided by the preventive measure adopted by the SAR government.
For over a year, I have been advocating for compulsory universal testing (CUT). While it is still not too late to carry out universal testing, we certainly missed the golden moment when CUT could have curbed infections, including imported cases (e.g., the Cathay Pacific pilots). I would even venture to say that the early implementation of CUT would have prevented the severity of the current wave.
Before omicron reached Hong Kong, were we not aware of its highly transmissible properties, as we saw the US, the UK, and continental Europe succumb to this variant?
Nonetheless, the SAR government twiddled its thumbs and neglected to make the necessary preparations.
Even if the outburst of the fifth wave and omicron were inevitable for Hong Kong, shortages of hospital beds, front-line medical personnel, medical supplies and makeshift hospitals were certainly avoidable if the SAR’s authorities had not been sitting on their hands.
But the harsh reality is that once again, Hong Kong residents have suffered as the SAR government time and again has taken a reactive approach and remained behind the curve.
Just as an example, the shortage of medical personnel should have been anticipated and easily avoided by enacting emergency laws that would allow Chinese mainland counterparts to work, time-limited, in Hong Kong. Instead, our local front-line healthcare workers are being pushed to their limits and beyond.
Going forward, obviously we need to plug the policy loopholes that have permitted these debacles to continue unabated. The SAR government should use its many mandatory powers. It should also be more prepared, more proactive, more organized and more forthcoming with anticipatory policies.
As a leading educational and research hub, Hong Kong has plenty of medical experts at its disposal who can predict and postulate all possible outcomes and present appropriate solutions. But these experts only perform in an advisory capacity, as it is the government that is ultimately responsible for making decisions and implementing these solutions.
It is also the responsibility of any government to set an example. And in Hong Kong’s case, the SAR government needs to do more to negate the deep-seated prejudice that some local residents harbored against the Chinese mainland.
This prejudice has caused some of us to turn up our noses at anyone and anything coming from the mainland. Ironically it is the Chinese mainland that has been far more successful in containing the pandemic, while Hong Kong has barely managed to keep its head above water.
Our SAR government has now fallen in line and said that it would execute the “dynamic zero infection” policy, but sadly, this is too late.
All wars are fought with a commander-in-chief, supervisors, generals and foot soldiers, as a team. From the very top all the way down to the men in the trenches, everyone has and knows his specific role. This is how a war machine functions and how it can only function as intended. In other words, the division of responsibilities, knowing one’s place in the organization, and cooperation are key. There should be no pushback, no insubordination, and definitely no halfhearted acceptance of
decisions.
On top of that, we also need to appoint a “chief supervisor” or “chief of staff”, ideally someone in high political office from the central authorities, to station in Hong Kong and ensure that the SAR government works as a team and that it performs.
The bottom line is that Hong Kong must accept that Beijing has a part to play in stabilizing the city in both the immediate future and beyond. If Hong Kong refuses to learn the many lessons of this pandemic, then we should all fear for our city’s future.
The author is president of the think tank Wisdom Hong Kong.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.