The discovery in South Africa of the new COVID-19 variant Omicron has shocked the world. Aside from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, 77 countries have reported Omicron cases, according to the World Health Organization. The new virus strain is believed to be more contagious. In South Africa, infections have shot up from 300 cases a day to over 11,000 in a few days because of Omicron. England has now estimated over 1 million people there could be infected with Omicron by the end of December. Experts claim that Omicron infects cells faster and transmits more easily. It may also decrease the effectiveness of vaccines and other public health measures. This new virus variant has put the world on high alert, with health officials warning of possible case surges and pressure on hospitals. WHO has flagged the variant as a “very high” global risk.
Although studies will take weeks to determine the full effect of Omicron, public health officials believe that vaccines will nonetheless provide at least some level of protection against severe syndromes, and can reduce hospitalizations and deaths from Omicron and the other COVID-19 strains. The age-standardized mortality rate for COVID-19 in the UK between January and September was 849.7 per 100,000 person-years for the unvaccinated and 26.2 per 100,000 person-years for the fully vaccinated. This means that the death rate for the unvaccinated is over 32 times that of the vaccinated.
Hence most countries are now pushing for full vaccination. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced on Nov 29 its recommendation that everyone 5 years and older should get vaccinated and everyone 18 and older should get a booster dose after completing the first course of vaccination. It suggests a booster dose may provide robust protection against Omicron.
Governments around the globe, including Hong Kong, have quickly restricted arrivals from South Africa and other countries that have confirmed cases of Omicron. But as Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program, pointed out, travel bans alone cannot stop a new variant from spreading. Therefore, given the hyper contagious nature of Omicron, it is a matter of time before the virus evades any travel ban and attacks our community. When the inevitable happens, is Hong Kong prepared to deal with it?
As WHO has advised, the best way to avoid infection from Omicron or any other variant is to get more people vaccinated and for governments to continue promoting public health measures such as social distancing, personal hygiene and mask wearing. But so far, in Hong Kong, only 70 percent of the population have been vaccinated, leaving 30 percent, or 2.2 million residents, unvaccinated. This is a huge number of those who are vulnerable. The vaccination rates for the elderly are much worse, with only 50 percent for those aged over 60 and only 34 percent for the over-70s. What’s even more concerning is that a recent survey has revealed that 47 percent of those unvaccinated will reject a vaccination no matter what. They are truly the most vulnerable group. If we extrapolate the US COVID-19 mortality statistics to Hong Kong, our prospects become alarming. Because of the 50 million people in the US who were infected, 808,116 have died. Given the US population of 329.5 million, this means the US infection rate is 15 percent and the death rate is 1.6 percent. In other words, if Hong Kong is hit with a fifth wave, of Omicron, and if our infection and death rate is on par with that of the US, 300,000 of our residents could be infected and 48,000 of them would die just among the 2.2 million unvaccinated.
Hence, to save the lives of these unvaccinated people and to protect the community at large, they should be treated as severe health hazards. Either they get a vaccination or they stay away from all public places. In the interests of public health, all necessary measures must be introduced to save their lives and protect our community.
Many Western countries have taken stringent measures to push for full vaccination. Austria requires all citizens to be vaccinated by February next year and Greece has imposed a fine of 100 euros ($113) for all citizens above 60 who refuse to get vaccinated. Italy requires all employees to have a vaccination (Green Pass) before they can go to their workplace. Similarly, New York City recently announced a vaccine mandate for all of its 184,000 private sector employees. France and Germany have banned the unvaccinated from most public places and long-distance trains. Switzerland conducted a public referendum on Nov 28, and 62 percent supported the government’s stringent proposals such as the introduction of a vaccine passport and restricted access to public places for the unvaccinated, barring even family gatherings. Public opinion surveys in most Western countries show public support for such restrictions. All these countries have strong laws on human rights, equal opportunities and privacy protection, which means that public health concerns should rightly supersede these personal freedoms and rights.
Therefore, the HKSAR government should no longer hesitate to introduce stringent measures similar to many Western countries to restrict access to public places for the unvaccinated. Exemptions should be allowed only for those who have medical proof of their unsuitability for vaccination, but then they should be required to undergo regular virus testing. The government can even consider Singapore’s measures that those who are unvaccinated “by choice” will have to pay for their own medical treatment in a government hospital if they get infected with COVID-19, with the bill averaging S$25,000 ($18,300).
Similarly, to protect our young people, mandatory vaccination of all students should be required before they are permitted to enter campus. This can be done in stages, starting with universities, followed by secondary schools and finally primary schools. It would gradually bring normalcy back to the lives of our student population.
In a recent survey, most residents regard the border shutdown as our number 1 problem. But the only way we can safely reopen our borders to the rest of the world is to precede it with full vaccination, or close to it. The commonsense proposal for vaccine passports as entry requirement to all public places should be supported. In tackling Omicron, it could become the catalyst for our economic recovery.
The author is an adjunct professor of HKU Space and council member of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.